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Happy Valley Selections February 12th
February 11th, 2020HKJC - Happy Valley Feb 12
For those of you who are new to Hong Kong racing, programs are always available free: here.
Race 1: 11-6-12-10
BEST BET: Exceptional Desire (11) picks up Joao Moreira (19.9%) as well as a much improved barrier draw (6) after leaving from barrier 12 last start over this 1,200m route where they hit the first turn very quickly out of the gate, and barrier draws have been very important statistically. Apart from Grand Harbour (12), Moreira should have little trouble getting this horse clearance down to the rail on the lead in the early stages of the race. The SpeedPRO guide for this race projects a good to slow pace which would set up well.
Race 2: 11-2-3-5
Everyone’s Elite (11) has been unlucky not to win so far this season, instead he has had to settle for three consecutive 2nd place finishes, after a 3rd place finish to start the season. He hasn’t been more than 1.25 lengths from the winner in any of those starts. Joao Moreira (19.9%) takes over from De Sousa (9.4%).
Race 3: 5-11-4-6
Compassion Star (5) is fresh off a commanding win over this same distance and track last outing. Picks up top jockey Zac Purton (18.6%) and will carry 9 pounds more that last start, which I don’t factor too heavily over this 1,200m route.
Race 4: 7-10-9-4
Royal Racer (7) and Vincent Ho (12.6%) will have to overcome barrier 12 here to win, but seem to be in a soft field here- it looks like a few here could use a move downward to class 5 with just a few rating points dropped. California Legend (4) should take a lot of action here coming back off a win, and would be a vulnerable favourite.
Race 5: 8-4-9-3
Telecom Puma (8) drops out of class 2 and down into this class 3 contest- although 4 other horses are dropping down in here as well. That should allow this one to stay below the radar of the betting public, and I am expecting long odds. Tony Piccone (6.8%) is capable despite not having many opportunities yet.
Race 6: 4-6-9-7
Surrealism (4) was scratched lame a couple of weeks ago due to an issue with his left hind leg according to vet records. Keep an eye on how he looks out there, because apart from that issue with Zach Purton (18.6%) on board, this guy should have a strong chance here. He is still searching for his first Hong Kong win, although he was a 3 time winner in Great Britain before relocating here. Trainer David Ferraris is only winning at 6.9%, so keep that in mind when evaluating the odds you are willing to take.
Race 7: 12-7-4-3
Play Wise (12) should enjoy carrying 21 pounds less for 1,650m this start after moving up in class at the minimum rating. Jockey Dylan Mo (7.6%) has the inside barrier to work with, and should be able to work out a covered up trip at possibly long odds here.
Race 8: 11-9-1-7
Diamond Brilliant (11) makes his first start at Happy Valley, and has drawn the desirable inside barrier over the 1,200m route (25.4%!). The story in this race is overwhelmingly about Californiadeepshot (1) who makes his 2nd Hong Kong start, back from a very commanding win last outing. The challenge for Californiadeepshot is the dreaded barrier 12 again, paired with an extra 8 pounds to carry this week- he looks to be the dominant horse in the race, but can he overcome these challenges?
Jockey Challenge Predicted Totals
- Joao Moreira - 40 points
- Zac Purton- 28 points
- Vincent Ho - 18 points
- Alexis Badel - 18 points
- Grant Van Niekerk - 18 points
Previous Selection Results Hong Kong (Overall)Jockey Challenge Winner: 1/2 $1 Win Best Bet: 0/2 (-$2.00) $1 Win Top Selections: 1/18 (-$9.25) $1 Top 4 Quinella Box: 1/18 (+$0)
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