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Sha Tin Selections February 15th
February 7th, 2020HKJC - Sha Tin Feb 15th
Race 1: 1-11-8-12
Hard Promise (1) drops back into class 4, where he spent a brief time last season before quickly winning his way back to class 3. The 6 year old has had a disappointing start to this season with all 4 starts running 5-10 lengths from the winner. According to vet records there was substantial mucus in his trachea after racing on on November 6th. Taking a shot here that this one can return to true form. If he does his best work, he’s more than capable of winning at this level.
Race 2: 1-4-6-13
The Runner (1) drops into class 4 for the first time, still in search of his first Hong Kong win. He was a two time winner in Australia before relocating. Alexis Badel (9.8%) takes over from Lyle Hewitson (1.4%). Trainer Douglas Whyte is winning at 12.5% this season.
Race 3: 4-11-13-1
Cheerful Leader (4) is still in search of his first win, having been close on a number of occasions recently. His is noted as lacking a fast kick, so he will need to be placed close to the action if he is to find his first win here. The jockey/trainer combo doesn’t get any stronger than this- Joao Moreira (20%) and Ricky Yiu (17.7%).
Race 4: 2-7-6-10
BEST BET Mighty Giant (2) picks up jockey Zac Purton (18.9%) this start, taking over from Lyle Hewitson (1.4%) who picked up a win back in December on this horse. The handicappers were generous to give this one another start in class 4 after his win and two 2nd place finishes. I don’t expect this guy to stay in class 4 for long.
Race 5: 1-7-4-11
Exultant (1) was dominant over 1,800m last outing where he carried significantly more weight than the rest of the field, who today have to race at equal weights. I don’t see a reason to go against this one, if he can repeat the previous performance he should be much the best.
Race 6: 5-14-1-3
Southern Superstar (5) makes his 3rd Hong Kong start, still in search of his first win after running 3rd and then 2nd. He was a two time winner in South Africa back in 2016. Chad Schofield (7.8%) is up for the ride, and with the inside barrier draw should be able to settle in to a nice covered up position near the front.
Race 7: 1-7-2-5
Beauty Generation (1) has lost a little love from the betting public this year after many feel he has lost a step over last years domination. I think many just assumed this horse would never lose in Hong Kong again after a perfect 8 win season last year, so getting beat in 4 straight starts this season has been a shock. He was only beaten a neck by Waikuku last start, and I give this champion the benefit of the doubt, that he may rise back to the top here.
Race 8: 3-13-2-14
Team Spirit (3) was barely caught last start after trying to go wire-to-wire for Tony Piccone (6.6%) who is back on board to ride here. Trainer Chris So is winning at 5.4%, and I think you can find appropriate value here to match or exceed those implied chances.
Race 9: 1-13-9-3
Harmony Spirit (1) makes his first Hong Kong start, coming fresh off a win at Ascot last start. Although debuting in class 3 at the top rating, he looks to be up to the challenge.
Race 10: 2-6-7-5
Morethanlucky (2) wasn’t so lucky last start when jockey Matthew Chadwick (6.6%) dropped the whip and went on to lose by a half length at long odds. He faces easier competition here, but should still be a value play. Trainer Frankie Lor’s stable is winning at 9.2% this season, far below his 14.5% strike rate over his Hong Kong career, and I expect things will begin to pick up for the barn soon.
Jockey Challenge Predicted Totals
- Zac Purton- 46 points
- Joao Moreira - 28 points
- Tony Piccone - 26 points
Previous Selection Results Hong Kong (Overall)Jockey Challenge Winner: 1/3 $1 Win Best Bet: 0/3 (-$3.00) $1 Win Top Selections: 1/26 (-$17.25) $1 Top 4 Quinella Box: 3/26 (+$431.65)
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